#bayes #programming #r #statistics
Holmes conceived of a set of possible causes for a crime. Some of the possibilities may have seemed very improbable, apriori. Holmes systematically gathered evidence that ruled out a number of the possible causes. If all possible causes but one were eliminated, then (Bayesian) reasoning forced him to conclude that the remaining possible cause was fully credible, even if it seemed improbable at the start
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shihabdider - (no access) - Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, p18
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