#m249 #mathematics #open-university #statistics #time-series
The ﬁrst step is to ﬁnd an initial estimate of the trend component mt that is not unduly inﬂuenced by the seasonal component st. A reasonable starting point would be to use a simple moving average with order equal to the period T of the seasonal cycle. Such a moving average would smooth out the seasonal variation, as the annual highs and lows would cancel out.
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