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#reading-9-probability-concepts

The unconditional variance of EPS is the sum of two terms:

1) the expected value (probability-weighted average) of the conditional variances (parallel to the total probability rules) and

2) the variance of conditional expected values of EPS.

The second term arises because the variability in conditional expected value is a source of risk. Term 1 is σ^{2}(EPS) = *P*(*declining interest rate environment*) σ^{2}(EPS | *declining interest rate environment*) + *P*(*stable interest rate environment*) σ^{2}(EPS | *stable interest rate environment*) = 0.60(0.004219) + 0.40(0.0096) = 0.006371.

Term 2 is σ^{2}[*E*(EPS | interest rate environment)] = 0.60($2.4875 − $2.34)^{2} + 0.40($2.12 − $2.34)^{2} = 0.032414. Summing the two terms, unconditional variance equals 0.006371 + 0.032414 = 0.038785.

1) the expected value (probability-weighted average) of the conditional variances (parallel to the total probability rules) and

2) the variance of conditional expected values of EPS.

The second term arises because the variability in conditional expected value is a source of risk. Term 1 is σ

Term 2 is σ

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