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Tags

#m249 #mathematics #open-university #statistics #time-series

Question

Suppose that the data are quarterly, so that T = 4; to smoothen out seasonal variations we cannot use **simple** moving average with period T = 4 (because number is even), and if we use T = 5, one season (e.g. winter and next winter) would be counted twice. How to recover from this?

Answer

Use T = 5 **weighted** average and weight down the season counted twice with 0.5 (relative to other periods' weights).

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

Tags

#m249 #mathematics #open-university #statistics #time-series

Question

The simple moving average is a weighted moving average in which the weights a_{j} are all equal to [...]

Answer

N^{ −1}

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

The simple moving average is a weighted moving average in which the weights a j are all equal to (2q +1) −1

#m249 #mathematics #open-university #statistics #time-series

One way to predict tomorrow’s average temperature is to assume it will be the same as today’s.

status | not read | reprioritisations | ||
---|---|---|---|---|

last reprioritisation on | reading queue position [%] | |||

started reading on | finished reading on |

Tags

#m249 #mathematics #open-university #statistics #time-series

Question

One way to predict tomorrow’s average temperature is to assume it will be the same as [...].

Answer

today’s

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

One way to predict tomorrow’s average temperature is to assume it will be the same as today’s.