on 19-Sep-2022 (Mon)

夫禍富之 (also 夫禍福之) 轉而相生, Good luck and bad luck create each other 其變難見也. and it is difficult to foresee their change. 近塞上之人有善術者. A righteous man lived near the border. 馬無故亡而入胡. For no reason, his horse ran off into barbarian territory. 人皆吊之.(also 人皆弔之.) Everyone [people] felt sorry for him. 其父曰: [But] His father spoke [to him]: „此何遽不為福乎?“ "Who knows if that won't bring you good luck?" 居數月, Several months later 其馬將胡駿馬而歸. his horse came back with a group of [good, noble] barbarian horses. 人皆賀之. Everyone [people] congratulated him. 其父曰: [But] His father spoke [to him]: „此何遽不能為禍乎?“ "Who knows if that won't bring you bad luck?" 家富良馬, A rich house has good horses 其子好騎, and the son mounted with joy/loved riding. 墮而折其髀. He fell and broke his leg. 人皆吊之. Everyone [people] felt sorry for him. 其父曰: [But] His father spoke [to him]: „此何遽不為福乎?“ "Who knows if that won't bring you good luck?" 居一年, One year later 胡人大入塞, the barbarians invaded across the border. 丁壯者引弦而戰, Adult men strung up their bows and went into battle. 近塞之人，死者十九, Nine out of ten border residents were killed, 此獨以跛之故.
except for the son because of his broken leg. 父子相保. Father and son were protected/both survived. 故福之為禍, Hence: Bad luck brings good luck 禍之為福. and good luck brings bad luck. 化不可極, This happens without end 深不可測也. and nobody can estimate it.

The parable tells the story of a farmer who lives with his father close to the border to the barbarian territories. Without his fault and without being able to influence them, the farmer goes through various situations which all have important consequences for him:

• His horse, a considerable part of his property and livelihood, runs away.
• After weeks, his horse finds its way back and brings along other horses from the barbarian territories, thus increasing the farmer's property.
• Trying to ride one of the wild horses, the farmer falls and breaks his leg - which reduces his physical capacities.
• When the barbarians attack the borderland, the injured farmer is not drafted and does not have to join the battle to help with the defense - whereby he and his father survive and escape death.

These events are spontaneously judged by the neighbors, but the farmer's old father relativizes these judgments of the situations with his knowledge of Dào (i.e. The Right Way): Everything is an interplay of Yin and Yang, of light and shadow, of happiness and unhappiness, whether in the smallest details or in the great events of life. But since in the framework of human perception it is impossible to recognize the future consequences of an event (and thus to know what is really 'good luck' or 'bad luck'), the old man's reaction to these events is a stoic equanimity, and thus the appropriate reaction. He reacts with wu wei (Chinese: 無爲 ; pinyin: wú wéi ; i.e. 'not intervening', 'not acting') but this term should not be confused with apathy. In this knowledge he finds his calm and lasting, true happiness: he accepts life as it is.

The Story of the Chinese Farmer

Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.” The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”

The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.” The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”

The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.

— Alan Watts

Maybe so, Maybe not. We’ll see.

There is a Chinese Proverb that goes something like this…

A farmer and his son had a beloved stallion who helped the family earn a living. One day, the horse ran away and their neighbors exclaimed, “Your horse ran away, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”

A few days later, the horse returned home, leading a few wild mares back to the farm as well. The neighbors shouted out, “Your horse has returned, and brought several horses home with him. What great luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”

Later that week, the farmer’s son was trying to break one of the mares and she threw him to the ground, breaking his leg. The villagers cried, “Your son broke his leg, what terrible luck!” The farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”

A few weeks later, soldiers from the national army marched through town, recruiting all the able-bodied boys for the army. They did not take the farmer’s son, still recovering from his injury. Friends shouted, “Your boy is spared, what tremendous luck!” To which the farmer replied, “Maybe so, maybe not. We’ll see.”