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status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

Consider the multiplicative model X t = m t × s t × W t .Let Y t denote the time series of logarithms: Y t =log X t .Then Y t =log X t Y t = log(m t × s t × W t ) Y t = log m t +log s t +log W t .

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

if a multiplicative model is appropriate for the time series X t , then an additive model is appropriate for the time series of logarithms, Y t =log X t .

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

if a multiplicative model is appropriate for the time series X t , then an additive model is appropriate for the time series of logarithms, Y t =log X t .

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

if a multiplicative model is appropriate for the time series X t , then an additive model is appropriate for the time series of logarithms, Y t =log X t .

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

by taking logarithms, a time series for which a multiplicative model is appropriate can be transformed into a time series for which an additive model is appropriate.

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

Transformations of time series that are commonly used include the power transformations: Y t = X t a , where a = ... 1/4, 1/3, 2, 3, 4, ....

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

Transformations of time series that are commonly used include the power transformations: Y t = X t a , where a = ... 1/4, 1/3, 2, 3, 4, ....

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A simple moving average (or just a moving average) of order (or span) 11 can be written as Y t = 111(X t−5 + ···+ X t + ···+ X t+5 )

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A simple moving average (or just a moving average) of order (or span) 11 can be written as Y t = 111(X t−5 + ···+ X t + ···+ X t+5 )

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A simple moving average (or just a moving average) of order (or span) 11 can be written as Y t = 111(X t−5 + ···+ X t + ···+ X t+5 )

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

For the purpose of smoothing time series, only moving averages for which the order is an odd number will be used. These are said to be centred on the middle value.

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

With a suitable degree of smoothing — that is, with a suitable choice of the order of the moving average — the moving average provides an estimate of the trend component m t ; this is denoted mt^

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status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A weighted moving average of order 2q + 1 has the form MA(t)= a −q X t−q + ···+ a −1 X t−1 + a 0 X t + a 1 X t+1 + ···+ a q X t+q , where the weights a j , j = −q, −q +1,... ,

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A weighted moving average of order 2q + 1 has the form MA(t)= a −q X t−q + ···+ a −1 X t−1 + a 0 X t + a 1 X t+1 + ···+ a q X t+q , where the weights a j , j = −q, −q +1,... ,q, add up to 1.</

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

A weighted moving average of order 2q + 1 has the form MA(t)= a −q X t−q + ···+ a −1 X t−1 + a 0 X t + a 1 X t+1 + ···+ a q X t+q , where the weights a j , j = −q, −q +1,... ,q, add up to 1.

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

l>A weighted moving average of order 2q + 1 has the form MA(t)= a −q X t−q + ···+ a −1 X t−1 + a 0 X t + a 1 X t+1 + ···+ a q X t+q , where the weights a j , j = −q, −q +1,... ,q, add up to 1.<html>

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last reprioritisation on | reading queue position [%] | |||

started reading on | finished reading on |

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

The weighted moving averages are denoted SA(t) rather than MA(t) when their particular use in smoothing out seasonal variation.

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

The weighted moving averages are denoted SA(t) rather than MA(t) when their particular use in smoothing out seasonal variation.

status | not read | reprioritisations | ||
---|---|---|---|---|

last reprioritisation on | reading queue position [%] | |||

started reading on | finished reading on |

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
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repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

ead>The ﬁrst step is to ﬁnd an initial estimate of the trend component m t that is not unduly inﬂuenced by the seasonal component s t . A reasonable starting point would be to use a simple moving average with order equal to the period T of the seasonal cycle. Such a moving average would smooth out the seasonal variation, as the annual highs and lows would cancel out.<html>

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

status | not read | reprioritisations | ||
---|---|---|---|---|

last reprioritisation on | reading queue position [%] | |||

started reading on | finished reading on |

status | not learned | measured difficulty | 37% [default] | last interval [days] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

repetition number in this series | 0 | memorised on | scheduled repetition | ||||

scheduled repetition interval | last repetition or drill |

The simple moving average is a weighted moving average in which the weights a j are all equal to (2q +1) −1